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Changing Opinions?

Matt Lubchansky
© Matt Lubchansky

Is it almost impossible to change people’s opinions with facts? If so, is democracy doomed?

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The Irony of the USA Freedom Kids

USA Freedom KidsLast summer a group of children calling themselves the “USA Freedom Kids” appeared at a Trump rally. According to NY Magazine, they became an instant sensation “because of the contrast between the adorableness of the performers and the quasi-fascistic undertones of their lyrics”. Like the line “Deal from strength or get crushed every time.”

Maybe they should have listened to their own lyrics, because apparently the group and their manager didn’t “deal from strength”.

They were supposed to be paid $2,500 for appearing, but then they were told that they could instead have a free table to sell CDs. They accepted, but when they arrived they found there was no table. They performed anyway, but when they returned to their car, they discovered that all their merchandise had been stolen. Next, they were asked to fly to Iowa to appear at Trump’s rally to help veterans. But Trump stiffed them again, not only not paying them, but he didn’t even reimburse them for their travel costs.

Yes, this is the same rally where Trump somehow forgot to donate the money he promised to the veterans until he was reminded by the media, and then only gave around half of what he claimed he had collected for them. So the kids are in good company — people who have been “crushed” by Trump.

The group is now suing Trump. Good luck with that.

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Late Night Political Humor

[Jokes from Aug. 26, 2016]

“The Washington Post published an entire biography of Donald Trump that’s 431 pages long. Trump said it’s a little longer than the books he likes to read, by about 431 pages.” – Jimmy Fallon

“The Trump biography also reveals that he doesn’t have a computer at his desk in Trump Tower. Instead, every five minutes he just shouts at his secretary, ‘Barbara! Google me!'” – Jimmy Fallon

“The FBI is investigating whether Russian intelligence agencies have hacked the computers at The New York Times, or as the Times reported it, ‘Putin named world’s sexiest leader.'” – Stephen Colbert

“Mylan, the company that produces these EpiPens, have jacked up the price of these pens from less than $100 for a pair, to over $600. That price is enough to send you into shock, but don’t do it because you can’t afford the pen anymore.” – Stephen Colbert

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The Saudi Connection

Donald Trump recently blasted the Clinton Foundation for taking donations from Saudi Arabia, saying that she should return their money because they have a poor human rights record. “I am calling on her to immediately return the $25 million plus she got from them for the Clinton Foundation!”

And when Sean Hannity on Fox News asked Trump “Would you take money from the Saudi?” Trump said no.

But according to the New York Daily News, Trump has taken lots of money from the Saudis. In fact, just last year Trump said “Saudi Arabia — and I get along great with all of them. They buy apartments from me. They spend $40 million, $50 million. Am I supposed to dislike them? I like them very much.”

So, who would probably be more influenced by the Saudi government? Remember, the Clintons do not make any money personally from the Clinton Foundation. And we don’t know how far in bed Trump is with the Saudis, because he won’t release his tax returns.

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Trump and the Truth

The New Yorker is starting a new series of articles all about “Trump and the Truth“:

Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for President, does not so much struggle with the truth as strangle it altogether. He lies to avoid. He lies to inflame. He lies to promote and to preen. Sometimes he seems to lie just for the hell of it. He traffics in conspiracy theories that he cannot possibly believe and in grotesque promises that he cannot possibly fulfill. When found out, he changes the subject—or lies larger.

Trump lies to an extent that goes far beyond what we have ever seen in a president, or as they put it “in the scale and in the depth of his lying, Donald Trump is in another category”.

Indeed, a series of articles are required in order to cover and fact check all the lies. The first article in the series deals with Trump and immigration.

I must admit that I was reluctant to read the first article, as I have already heard so much about Trump and immigration (and written about it here). But I learned much by reading it, as it is carefully researched and crafted, in order to cut the heart out of not just Trump’s statements, but his entire appeal. No other issue has given Trump so much milage as immigration, as he stokes the fires of fear of the “rapists and criminals” who are supposedly flooding into our country from Mexico and other places.

But there is no actual basis for this fear. Immigrants (including the illegal ones) commit far less crime than ordinary (and legal) citizens. “If you live in a city that has become less dangerous in recent decades, a growing body of evidence suggests that you actually have immigrants to thank.”

I won’t go through all the evidence — the article does that beautifully. Go read it.

There will be a new article every week. I look forward to them.

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Late Night Political Humor

[Jokes from Aug. 25, 2016]

“Politico is now reporting that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is using a run-out-the-clock strategy against Donald Trump, hoping to just outlast him until November. ‘Sounds like a good plan,’ said Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich.” – Jimmy Fallon

“On Saturday, Hillary Clinton will receive her first official intelligence briefing as a candidate. Officials plan to tell Hillary about threats to U.S. cybersecurity such as Russia, China, and her.” – Conan O’Brien

“Hillary Clinton had a phone interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper last night — and she HAD to do it by phone, because nobody could possibly lie to that face.” – Seth Meyers

“The leader of England’s Brexit movement spoke at a Trump rally and he said, ‘I wouldn’t vote for Clinton if you paid me.’ So in other words, Hillary has lost the critical ‘People Who Live in England’ vote.” – Conan O’Brien

“Hillary Clinton cited an old Mexican proverb in her speech in Nevada today to highlight the unchanging nature of Donald Trump. A Mexican proverb, or as Trump calls it, ‘A spell!'” – Seth Meyers

“Donald Trump’s campaign is now saying he didn’t change his immigration plan, he just changed the words he used to describe it. They also said Trump hasn’t been married three times, he’s just changed the person he calls ‘wife’.” – Conan O’Brien

“Trump will be the first president to make decisions by playing ‘Hot or Not’ with world leaders. Like, ‘Angela Merkel, not hot. Vladimir Putin, very hot.'” – Jimmy Fallon

“The Boston Globe just reported that according to his campaign staff, Donald Trump wouldn’t take any vacations as president. I think that’s because he has offended so many other countries he can’t leave this one.” – Jimmy Fallon

“A new Earth-like planet has been discovered a few months before an election where Donald Trump could be president. If that’s not perfect timing, I don’t know what is.” –James Corden

“Donald Trump’s running mate Mike Pence tweeted six pictures of himself stopping to get a burger in North Carolina yesterday. Chris Christie was like, ‘OK, now he’s just rubbing it in.'” – Seth Meyers

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Policy In Their Own Words

The website ProCon.org is a goldmine of information about the presidential candidates and how they stand on the major issues of the day. The best part is that every position is backed up by the candidate’s own words using extensive quotes.

For example, if you want to know how the candidates feel about abortion rights, you might be surprised to find that all four candidates support abortion. Well, except for the fact that Trump seems to have changed his position several times. Most recently he said he would support changing the Republican platform to allow abortion in case of rape, incest, or to protect the life of the mother. But before that he has expressed both CON and PRO opinions (and also a “NOT CLEARLY PRO OR CON” opinion), which they list.

The site lists over 70 issues, including on fracking, government surveillance, gun control, private prisons, immigration, minimum wage, climate change, gay marriage, torture, Obamacare, and so forth.

It is a great site to wander around. See if you can guess a candidate’s position on a topic before you click through to see the answer. Or if you are in a hurry, a single page summary. They even provide a quiz you can take to see which candidate matches your beliefs. You might be surprised by the results.

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Trump and Mexico

But just wait a minute and I’ll have a different opinion.

Jeff Stahler
© Jeff Stahler

Just wait until I’m elected.

Tom Toles
© Tom Toles

Believe me!

Drew Sheneman
© Drew Sheneman

You know, Trump keeps talking about building a wall, but that wouldn’t actually keep anyone out. Since 1990, the Border Patrol has discovered around 200 tunnels that simply would go under any wall, no matter how tall. And the US Customs and Border Protection commissioner concedes that many more tunnels might exist.

Trump then claims that he would use the “best technology” to “find and dislocate [sic] tunnels and keep out criminal cartels.” Except, no such technology exists:

The American government has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into research in hopes of finding a way to detect tunnels, but most of these efforts have ended in disappointment. Most recently, the Science and Technology Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security concluded that none of the current methods used to detect underground tunnels were “necessarily suited to Border Patrol agents’ operational needs.”

For example, radar can be used to find tunnels up to 10 feet deep, but we know that tunnels have been dug that are 90 feet deep.

I guess Trump is just blowing hot air out of some tunnel. Or maybe he has dislocated his brain.

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Illegal Immigrant Trump

Donald Trump has now given his fire-and-brimstone speech about illegal immigrants, including that there would be no amnesty and no path to citizenship for people who entered the country illegally. According to him even people who had not entered the US illegally, but who had come in on a visa but then didn’t leave, are a “big problem“:

Immigration law doesn’t exist for the purpose of keeping criminals out. It exists to protect all aspects of American life. The work site, the welfare office, the education system, and everything else.

Hypocritically, that seems to describe his wife, Melania Trump. It is pretty clear that she entered the US on a visitor visa, which does not allow her to work, while fully intending to work as a model. That alone would disqualify her from getting a green card. Oh, and she also lied about having a university degree on her website, but that would only be illegal if she listed it on her application for residency. And the fact that she posed for nude photos while here illegally wouldn’t help either. (Unfortunately, plagiarizing her convention speech from Michele Obama would likely not count against her.)

But we don’t know, because even though more than three weeks ago Trump’s campaign promised to answer questions about Mrs. Trump’s immigration status, no such answers have been forthcoming. So the Trumps are lying and breaking promises.

I guess they hope we will just forget about it. When is someone going to ask Donald Trump whether he plans to deport his (third?) first lady if he is elected?

UPDATE: Four former models who worked for Donald Trump’s modeling agency in New York have said that they violated immigration laws by working in the US on tourist (visitor) visas. It is illegal for a company to hire someone without a valid work visa. The models were told by the Trump’s agency to lie on customs forms, and were told specifically “If they ask you any questions, you’re just here for meetings.” One of the models described working for Trump as “modern-day slavery”. Models were charged such high fees by the agency that they ended up earning almost nothing, despite working constantly. They couldn’t complain because they were illegal.

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Late Night Political Humor

[Jokes from Aug. 24, 2016]

“After more than a year of promising mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, last night Donald Trump actually referred to them as ‘great people’. Even Ryan Lochte was like, ‘Get your story straight, man!'” – Jimmy Fallon

“At first Donald Trump came out with guns blazing, said he’s going to kick all the Mexicans out, he’s going to build a wall to keep them from coming back in. Last night during a town hall on Fox News he said he could be softening, which is normal, it happens to a lot of men his age.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“A new report has found that Donald Trump may have used some of his campaign funds to buy thousands of copies of his own book. Oh my God, that’s what he’s gonna use to build the wall!” – Seth Meyers

“He’s now agreed to give immigrants a 30-minute head start before he tries to catch them with a net.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Not only is he reaching out to the Hispanic vote, he’s been reaching out to the black community. Donald Trump said he loves African-Americans, in fact some of his best credit cards are black.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“The Trump campaign said pollsters aren’t counting people who are afraid to say they’re Trump supporters. That’s right, because Trump supporters are very, very shy.” – Conan O’Brien

“Melania Trump is getting ready to sue the British newspaper the Daily Mail for writing that she once worked as an escort. Yep, Melania says she strongly denies the accusation that she has ever worked.” – Jimmy Fallon

“NASA announced they have re-established contact with a spacecraft that had been missing for two years. The spacecraft went missing again when it was told who the Republican nominee is.” – Conan O’Brien

“A new poll released today shows Hillary Clinton is 9 points ahead of Donald Trump in New Mexico. And 100 points ahead in Old Mexico.” – Seth Meyers

“Jennifer Lawrence was just named the world’s highest paid actress, bringing in $46 million last year before taxes. Yep, she narrowly beat out the world’s second highest paid actress: Hillary Clinton.” – Jimmy Fallon

“According to Hillary Clinton’s newly-released medical records, she suffers from seasonal allergies. But she just takes some Benadryl and they’re all deleted.” – Conan O’Brien

“Experts say Hillary Clinton’s campaign strategy is to ignore the controversies, and just run out the clock. By the way, that also happens to be Hillary Clinton’s marital strategy.” – Conan O’Brien

“Hillary Clinton held fundraisers today in Silicon Valley. Said Hillary, ‘It’s so great to be back here in the town where I was built.'” – Seth Meyers

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Aasif Mandvi as the Leader of ISIS

How ISIS really feels about Trump:

I miss Aasif Mandvi from the Daily Show.

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The Supreme Flop

Remember how Obama nominated respected moderate Merrick Garland for the Supreme Court, but the Republicans in the Senate refused to even hold hearings on him, giving the excuse that they should let the next president pick the new member of the Supreme Court. Because, you know, they really wanted to give the people a voice in the matter.

So the Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee signed a letter stating that the voters would decide the ideological direction of the court and promising that they would not hold hearings on any Supreme Court nominee until a new president took office. As a result, Garland has gone longer than any Supreme Court nominee in history without a vote (or even any discussion or confirmation hearings).

Well, now that the people’s voice is becoming clearer and it is looking like Trump is going to go down in flames, the GOP is afraid that Clinton might do just what they said should happen, and pick someone more ideologically liberal to be on the court.

So this week, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee Chuck Grassley did a sudden about face and said that in the lame duck session after the election (just to make sure) but before the new president is sworn in, he might be open to considering changing his mind. His statement is a monument of wishy-washy flip-floppery:

[If] we have the election and the majority of the Senate changed their mind about doing it in the lame duck as opposed to Jan. 20, I don’t feel that I could stand in the way of that. But I don’t think I can promote that idea.

Uh, by saying that, isn’t he actually promoting the idea?

I guess “the people” get a voice only if they happen to vote Republican.

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Imagine the Debate

Electoral Vote imagines what the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will be like. Basically, it is going to be both of them trying to unnerve the other. Here’s what they think it will be like:

Moderator: How will you bring unemployment down to 4%?

Trump: Hire people to build a wall. But the real issue is: Hillary, why does Bill prefer Monica to you? Is it her technique, or what?

Clinton: Hire people to repair our potholed roads and rusting bridges. But I won’t use companies that go bankrupt over and over and over like Donald’s. Bill Gates never went bankrupt. Steve Jobs never went bankrupt. Only third-rate losers with stubby fingers like Donald keep failing time and again.

Moderator: What will you do to make sure all Americans have broadband Internet?

Trump: Make great deals with AT&T and Verizon and I will order them to make sure all their email servers are secure, unlike Hillary’s, so our national security is not endangered.

Clinton: I’d copy FDR’s 1936 Rural Electrification Act, PL 74-605, also known as 49 STAT 1363. I certainly won’t be hiring guys like Paul Manafort, who are in cahoots with the Russians, to be involved and endanger our national security.

Moderator: What is your tax policy?

Trump: My tax returns are being audited so I won’t release them, but I am considering a special tax on crooked people like Hillary who make a fortune giving speeches to companies like Goldman Sachs.

Clinton: I have released my tax returns from 1977 to 2015. I would support a law requiring presidential candidates to release 30 years of tax returns so candidates like Donald couldn’t claim to be rich when they are actually up to their ears in debt to China.

Moderator: What are your views on racial justice?

Trump: All Lives Matter. Some of my best friends are black and I find it disgusting that Hillary’s mentor, Robert Byrd, was a member of the Ku Klux Klan.

Clinton: Black Lives Matter. Not only is Donald a bigot himself, but his top hire was Stephen Bannon, who has turned his anti-Semitism into a career.

Moderator: What is your position on torture?

Trump: If we catch ISIS fighters, I’d cut off their [bleep], put them in a blender, and force feed them to the ISIS cowards. If Hillary wins, the American people will be subjected to 4 years of torture listening to her dreadful cackle. I oppose that.

Clinton: I’ll bet (but less than $10,000) that 50 South American monkeys were tortured when someonoe ripped off their fur to make that thing on top of Donald’s head. I oppose torturing people and animals.

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Regrets

A new poll shows that a majority of Republicans wish they had picked someone else to be their nominee. “54 percent of Republican and GOP-leaning voters believe Trump isn’t the best choice as the party’s nominee, while 35 percent are satisfied with the real estate mogul as the party’s standard-bearer.”

The problem is, of course, that they can’t decide with whom they would replace him. The same poll asked who they would prefer, and 29% picked Trump, 15% picked Ted Cruz, 14% picked Marco Rubio, and everyone else got less than 10%.

And that is the irony. Even though a majority of Republicans don’t want Trump, he is still the most popular of the Republican candidates.

The poll also asked the similar questions of Democratic voters. “56 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are content with Hillary Clinton as their party’s nominee, while 32 percent believe there is a better option.” At least this is a majority, but still not great numbers for the Democrats.

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Real Election Fraud

Don’t think election fraud is a real problem? Well, not in the way the Republicans claim it is (people voting without government ID). The real potential problem is the insecurity of the computers that the government uses to count votes.

Monday, the FBI issued a warning that foreign hackers have gained access to election databases in two states, reported to be Arizona and Illinois. In the Illinois case, officials were forced to shut down the state’s voter registration system for 10 days in July. The hackers downloaded personal data on as many as 200,000 voters. In Arizona, malicious software was placed into its voter registration system.

Even worse, an IP address used in the attacks matches one used by Russian hackers, and the hacking methods used resemble methods used in other suspected Russian state-sponsored cyberattacks (including one carried out just a month ago).

Hacking a voter registration system would make it possible to throw an election, by removing the names of voters likely to vote for a single candidate, making it much more difficult for those people to actually vote.

And these are just the hacks that we know about.

I am a computer scientist, and so is the founder of Electoral Vote, and I completely agree with Electoral Vote’s warning:

The problem with hacking is that a foreign power could interfere with an election and there is a decent chance it would go undetected. The best way to protect against hacking is to avoid using computers in the voting process altogether, and to make sure the voter registration systems are not connected to the Internet in any way.

I believe that it is not only possible, but likely that people (including foreign governments) could throw a US election without detection. In fact, I would not be surprised if it has already been done on a small scale. Or worse, I would be surprised if it hasn’t already been done.

This is a serious threat to our country, our democracy, and our way of life. And little is being done to combat it.

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