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Like His Brother, Again

Jeb Bush just released the details of his economic plan in the Wall Street Journal. He claims that his new plan will result in sustained economic growth of four percent or more. To give you an idea of how difficult that would be, no president since Lyndon Johnson has achieved that level of growth. Wow, how is he going to do that? What powerful economic voodoo has he come up with that will work such a miracle?

Well, you can probably guess it. It’s more tax cuts for the wealthy, the same thing his brother tried which led to the Great Recession economic meltdown. So in addition to thinking that his brother’s invasion of Iraq was a good idea, he thinks his brother’s economic policies are worth doubling down on. In addition to cutting the top tax bracket from 39.6% to 28%, he wants to eliminate inheritance taxes and the alternative minimum tax, and slash corporate taxes.

Clearly, some people can not learn from history.

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Late Night Political Humor

“The State Department just released another batch of Hillary’s e-mails from when she was Secretary of State. In the e-mails, Hillary asked an aide what time ‘The Good Wife’ was on, how to charge her iPad, and how to get wi-fi. Hillary sounds less like the Secretary of State and more like my mom at a hotel.” – Jimmy Fallon

“Obama was in Alaska today to raise awareness on climate change and while he was there, he taped an episode of ‘Running Wild With Bear Grylls’ where celebrities eat mice and squirrels and drink bodily fluids. In this one, the president teaches us how to survive alone in the wilderness surrounded by 15 secret service agents disguised as trees.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“NBC just announced that President Obama will appear on an episode of ‘Running Wild With Bear Grylls’ later this year. Yeah, I guess the episode features Obama roughing it on a golf course that hasn’t been mowed for a couple of days.” – Jimmy Fallon

“A lot of people are upset that our president is appearing on a reality show. A little over a year from now, we might have a president who hosted a reality show. So get used to it… You know, Donald Trump?” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Donald Trump is facing criticism for refusing to name his favorite Bible verse. In Trump’s defense, it’s hard to be a fan of the Bible when three out of the seven deadly sins helped him get to where he is today. ‘Pride, greed and wrath have served me very well.'” – Jimmy Fallon

“Trump was also asked if he preferred the New Testament or the Old Testament of the Bible and he responded, ‘Uh, probably equal.’ It’s a tough choice, because the Old Testament focuses on immigrants moving to a new country and the New Testament focuses on a guy who hates money.” – Jimmy Fallon

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Predictable Blowback

Tom Tomorrow
© Tom Tomorrow

If you nurture irrational hatred in a group of disgruntled people by lying to them, isn’t it inevitable that they will eventually turn on you?

Reagan held it at bay with his 11th Commandment “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican“, but Trump is not reading from that script.

Of course, Saint Ronny famously abandoned it himself when he ran for president against Gerald Ford. But that just started the next GOP commandment, which in plain English might be “Believe in me because of what I say, not because of what I do.” And that just brings us back to this comic.

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Late Night Political Humor

“At the end of his speech, Kanye West announced that he’s running for president in 2020. He announced he’s running for president after smoking a bunch of weed. Then Obama was like, ‘Been there!'” – Jimmy Fallon

“According to a new poll, Hillary Clinton has lost a third of her supporters in Iowa since May. There’s still debate as to whether she lost them or just deleted them from her database.” – Jimmy Fallon

“Trump is doing pretty well in the polls right now, and he’s pretty confident. Which may be why he’s said he doesn’t plan on running campaign ads that attack the other candidates. When asked who the ads would attack instead, he said ‘Their mothers! It’s their fault those losers are here to begin with!'” – Jimmy Fallon

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Helen, Amen!

Helen Philpot (of Margaret and Helen) has a better grasp of religion that most of our presidential candidates:

Margaret, here is the thing about religion: Faith is a wonderful thing until it becomes certainty; at which point it becomes fanaticism. If there was only one true religion, fanaticism wouldn’t be all that bad. But there’s the rub, honey. Not only are there many different religions; there are many different versions of each religion. These days religious beliefs are like a backside. Everyone’s got one and often times they stink.

If you’re a Baptist, you probably shouldn’t work at a liquor store or a dance hall. If you’re a Catholic, you probably shouldn’t work at Planned Parenthood or any organization that thinks women should have a voice. And if you’re an idiot, you probably shouldn’t get yourself elected as a County Clerk in Kentucky.

My late husband was Catholic. I am a Methodist. I cooked and he did the dishes. Thank God we didn’t live in Kentucky because he would have starved and I would have had dishpan hands.

If we can’t all get along in the name of Jesus then can we get along? I don’t know, but imagine asking that question in the Middle East much less the middle of Eastern Kentucky. Of one thing I am certain: I’d rather live my life believing there is a God and finding out there isn’t, than believing there is no God only to find out there is. The problem is that some want to make a dialogue out of what is essentially a monologue. And some so badly want to have a conversation with God that often they decide to make up his part of that conversation as well.

My religious beliefs don’t have to affect your religious beliefs. In fact, you can even have no beliefs and we can still be friends and agree to live and let live. That, my friend, is what having faith really means. And I really do mean that. Really.

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Late Night Political Humor

“All the new polls indicate that Donald Trump is getting more popular every day. Apparently his inspiring riches to riches story is really resonating with everyday Americans.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Right now members of the Republican National Committee are essentially the scientists in a movie realizing their creation has escaped from the lab.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Even though Trump is on top, 54 percent of voters don’t believe he’s trustworthy or honest. If Donald Trump is dishonest, what’s he going to say when he starts being honest?” – Jimmy Kimmel

“They did a nationwide survey that found that when voters think of Donald Trump, the most common word that comes to mind is ‘Arrogant’. When the same voters think of Hillary Clinton, the most common word they use is ‘Liar.’ When they think of Jeb Bush, the first word that comes to mind is ‘Bush’. Voters don’t even care enough about Jeb Bush to come up with a word to describe him.” – Jimmy Kimmel

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Logical Conclusion

Dan Wasserman
© Dan Wasserman

There’s just one thing standing in the way of repairing our crumbling infrastructure, putting even more people back to work, and revving up the economy to new heights.

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Don’t use news media to understand the world

This is in Swedish, but there are English subtitles.

Hans Rosling points out what too many people seem to be completely unaware of – if you get your news from the media, you will have an extremely distorted view of the world. In a few cases this distortion is intentional (cough, Fox News) but even without malicious intent there is an implicit and overwhelming distortion in the news.

News, by definition, reports on events. Events like war, death, and disease. Things that catch your attention. Things that change slowly are not news (again by definition). Most people think the world is becoming worse, but by almost all measures (life expectancy, number of wars, violent death) the world has been and continues to improve dramatically. But that isn’t news, it is just facts.

Take one example, transportation. Every time there is an airplane crash it is all over the news, with photos and much wringing of hands by survivors and the relatives of casualties. But 1.3 million people die in car crashes every year (and an additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled). Do those make the news? Usually only if it is someone famous. As a result, far more people are afraid of flying than they are of driving. Even though flying is a hundred times safer than driving, and has been steadily getting safer over time.

I doubt that there is any deliberate conspiracy to make people more afraid of air travel (even at Fox News). However, airplane crashes are news, and car crashes are usually not. The result is the same.

Rosling’s point is that war and revolutions are news, but peaceful elections are not. Famine and disease are news, but steady improvements in living conditions are not.

Many Americans think the world is a scary and dangerous place. We are afraid of immigrants, calling them criminals and rapists. We go to war based on the flimsiest of excuses, against people and governments we are afraid of. We don’t trust Iran to honor the agreement to not develop nuclear weapons, because we think they are state sponsors of terrorism. When in reality our fear drives us to sponsor far more terror than Iran does.

Yes, we are surrounded by terrorism and terrorists, but much of it is self inflicted. We have met the enemy, and he is us.

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Late Night Political Humor

“Today is a special day. Today is women’s equality day. Donald Trump calls it ‘that time of the year again’.” – Conan O’Brien

“Donald Trump presided over a rally in Dubuc, Iowa, where he touted his strong skills as a negotiator and showed off his considerable skills as an impressionist. I don’t know if Donald Trump will make America great again but he has certainly made CNN great again.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“At a press conference yesterday, Donald Trump kicked out a Latino reporter but the man returned a few minutes later. Yeah, so already Trump’s deportation plan isn’t working.” – Conan O’Brien

“Donald Trump got into it with a well-respected Spanish language news anchor, Jorge Ramos from Univision, who made Donald upset when he tried to ask a question. ‘Go back to Univision,’ he said as he kicked him out of the place. He’s not even president yet and he’s already kicking Mexicans out.” – Jimmy Kimmel

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Market Value

Tom Tomorrow
© Tom Tomorrow

Shhhh! Don’t tell anyone. But the value of everything – stocks, your home, even the value of money – is completely arbitrary. How much anything is worth is based on what someone is willing to pay for it, which is controlled almost completely by emotions like fear and hope. It isn’t rational at all.

And as they say, what goes up must come down. And as long as bankers and realtors make lots of money from people buying and selling, then bubbles aren’t just some anomaly, they are a feature designed to take money out of your pocket and give it to Wall street.

If news about corporations, banks, and speculators buying up rights to fresh water doesn’t scare you, then you aren’t paying attention. Remember the oil crisis? You ain’t seen nothing yet! Think we fight too many wars for oil? What will happen when countries (or worse, corporations) start hoarding water?

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He’s Baaaack!

Stephen Colbert debuts as himself, hosting the Late Show, and talking about Trump and Oreo cookies:

You can watch the whole show on the CBS site.

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Trumping Trump

Salon has a good read titled “The shocking truth about Donald Trump: He’s actually the least terrifying GOP candidate“. Not only that, but this loud obnoxious buffoon actually has a chance of winning the GOP nomination for president, because in reality, his beliefs aren’t that different (and in fact are often more reasonable) than the rest of the rest of the pack of GOP candidates. The main difference between Trump and the other candidates is that he doesn’t speak in code words – he just says out loud what the other candidates are thinking, which is somehow appealing to the average Republican voter. He may say things that are intolerant and racist, but none of the rest of those jokers is willing to publicly disagree with his racist and xenophobic remarks.

Salon’s point is that Trump may be loud and obnoxious, but his opinions are actually more moderate than most Republicans. For example, when all the other GOP candidates were calling for Planned Parenthood to be defunded, Trump (correctly) pointed out that abortion services are a very small part of what they do. Jeb Bush, who is supposed to be the moderate candidate, claimed that Planned Parenthood is “not actually doing women’s health issues. They’re involved in something way different than that.” Which earned him a “Pants on Fire” from PolitiFact.

He is also the only GOP candidate who has talked about raising taxes on the rich. He also has opposed cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, previously supported universal healthcare, and opposed the war in Iraq.

And yet the Republican base loves him. Crazy, isn’t it? But has been shown over and over again, GOP voters don’t care about policy and governance. They care about bravado and bluster, something Trump has in spades.

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Late Night Political Humor

“It’s come out that Donald Trump’s grandfather owned a brothel. When reached for comment Trump said, screwing people for money is a long family tradition.” – Conan O’Brien

“There was a time when it seemed unimaginable that Joe Biden could ever be taken seriously enough to win his party’s nomination, but Donald Trump just blew that idea right out the window.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“A spokesman for the White House yesterday said Vice President Joe Biden has received president Obama’s blessing to run for president. Not that he necessarily needs it, but Biden hasn’t made a decision yet, but he plans to as soon as Amazon delivers the magic eight ball he ordered.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“A lot of people are upset because Jeb Bush used the term ‘anchor babies’ to describe children born of illegal immigrants. Calling a child an anchor baby is almost as derogatory as calling a child Jeb. But he was in McAllen, Texas, defending himself, reminding everyone that his wife is Mexican. You don’t mention that your wife is Mexican as much as Jeb Bush.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Bill Gates alone, lost $3.2 billion on the stock market yesterday. To put that in perspective, that’s like a regular person losing a dollar in a vending machine.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“The CEO of Starbucks sent the message to Starbucks employees yesterday, instructing them to be sensitive to customers who might be feeling stressed out about the market. I like that the place that charges $5 for a cup of coffee is concerned about our finances.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“South Korea has agreed to stop broadcasting insulting propaganda over the North Korean border. They’ve agreed to stop doing it. They’ve also canceled their Comedy Central roast of Kim Jong Un.” – Conan O’Brien

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Trumped Up

The old saying that it is easier to tell the truth than lie (because it is more difficult to keep track of lies) doesn’t seem to apply to Donald Trump. Of his 43 statements fact checked by PolitiFact so far, not a single one has earned a True rating, and he got only two “Mostly True” ratings, while 21 were rated False and eight were “Pants on Fire” (that’s more than Sarah Palin!).

Trump doesn’t even care to keep track of his lies. He seems perfectly willing to contradict himself, and if anyone points out his mendacity he’ll just attack them (for being a loser). For example, Trump completely contradicts himself when he bashes Obama for withdrawing troops from Iraq. In May, Trump said on Fox News:

It’s the fault of Obama—there is no question. It’s the fault of Bush for going in. It’s the fault of Obama for getting out. It’s a disaster—the war should have never happened. And then once it did happen, you should have at least left the troops in. So it’s really a double fault.

On another Fox appearance he said:

We shouldn’t have been there, and once we were there, we probably should have stayed. The Middle East has been totally decapitated. It’s a mess. The balance has been lost between Iraq and Iran.

But back in 2007 on CNN, Trump said quite the opposite:

The war is a total disaster, it’s a catastrophe, nothing less. It is such a shame that this took place. In fact, I gained a lot of respect for our current president’s father by the fact he had the sense to not to go into Iraq. He won the war and then said let’s not go the rest of the way, and he turned out to be right. And Saddam Hussein, whether they like him or didn’t like him, he hated terrorists. He’d shot and killed terrorists. When terrorists came into his country, which he did control, which he did dominate, he would kill terrorists. Now it’s a breeding ground for terrorists. Look, the war is a total catastrophe. And they have a civil war going on over there. Well, there’s only one person you can blame, and that’s our current president…[Cheney] is obviously a very hawkish guy on the war. He said the war was going fantastically just a few months ago. It’s just very sad. I don’t know if they’re bad people. I don’t know what’s going. I just know that they got us into a mess the likes of which this country has probably never seen. It’s one of the great catastrophes of all time. And perhaps even worse: The rest of the world hates us.

Interviewer Wolf Blitzer asked Trump, “How does the United States get out of this situation?” and Trump replied:

How do they get out? You know how they get out? They get out. That’s how they get out. Declare victory and leave. Because, I’ll tell you, this country is just going to get further bogged down. They’re in a civil war over there, Wolf. There’s nothing that we’re going to be able to do with a civil war. They are in a major civil war. And it’s going to go to Iran, and it’s going to go to other countries. They are in the midst of a major civil war. By the way, we’re keeping the lid on a little bit. But the day we leave anyway it’s all going to blow up. And Saddam Hussein will be a nice person compared to the man…that takes over… This is a total catastrophe, and you might as well get out now because you’re just wasting time and lives. You know, nobody talks about the soldiers who are coming back with no arms and no legs. And I saw at Mar-a-Largo on Monday. I make Mar-a-Largo, my club [in Palm Beach, Florida] that you know about… On a Monday, I let returning Iraq injured soldiers come to the premises. The most beautiful people I’ve ever seen, but they’re missing arms and legs. They’re with their wives. Sometimes they’re with their girlfriends. And the tears are coming down the faces of these people. I mean, the thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands—and the Iraqis that have just maimed and killed. This war is a horrible thing. Now President Bush says he is religious. And yet 400,000 people, the way I count it, have died, and probably millions have been badly maimed and injured. What’s going on? What’s going on?

So Trump now blames Obama for following the policy that he vigorously promoted. You wouldn’t think you could get much more hypocritical, but you can. Because it was Dubya who signed the treaty withdrawing our troops from Iraq, not Obama.

Trump even lies about his money and success. Trump likes to brag that he is very wealthy. How wealthy? When he announced his bid for the presidency in June, Trump claimed that he was worth $8,737,540,000 – close to $9 billion dollars. And he added “I’m proud of my net worth. I’ve done an amazing job.”

But Forbes magazine has been tracking Trump’s wealth (the same as they track other rich people) since 1982, and they dispute Trump’s number, calling it a “whopper”. They put his net worth at $4.1 billion, less than half of what Trump claimed. But Trump doubled down (contradicting himself) in July at a campaign rally in Iowa, claiming that he was “actually worth more than $10” billion.

It could be an even bigger lie. Bloomberg evaluated Trump in July and claims that he is worth only $2.9 billion.

What makes this even more hilarious is that Trump tells everybody that he is a huge success. But is he really? Trump was the son of real estate tycoon Fred Trump, and received an inheritance from his father estimated as high as $200 million. If he had invested his inheritance in the stock market using a simple index fund of S&P 500 stocks, Trump would be worth $8 billion today. Other estimates say he could have been worth as much as $13 billion today by investing his money in the stock market.

But it gets worse. The only reason Trump has as much money as he does now is that he was able to take advantage of various forms of corporate welfare. It is widely known that Trump companies declared bankruptcy four times (in 1991, 1992, 2004, and 2009), which allowed him to shield his personal assets from losses incurred in his businesses. How much less would he be worth now if he had not been able to do that?

In addition, according to an article in the LA Times:

From his first high-profile project in New York City in the 1970s to his recent campaigns to reduce taxes on property he owns around the country, Trump has displayed a consistent pattern. He courted public officials, sought their backing for government tax breaks under extraordinarily beneficial terms and fought any resistance to deals he negotiated.

He has boasted of manipulating government agencies, misleading officials in one case into believing he had an exclusive agreement to develop a property and then retroactively changing the development’s accounting practices to shrink his tax bill. In New York, Trump was the first developer to receive a public subsidy for commercial projects under programs initially reserved for improving slum neighborhoods.

In other words, Trump brags about being a corporate welfare queen. How much less would he be worth now without all this government assistance?

Just how did he manage to get these subsidies and tax breaks? By bribing politicians with (legal) campaign contributions:

He has also curried favor with elected officials through campaign contributions and lucrative job offers.

His giving has long been carefully targeted. A 1980s study by Newsday found that Trump had donated more than anyone else to members of the New York City Board of Estimate, which at the time approved all land-use development. A recent study by New York’s Public Interest Research Group showed that since 1999, Trump has donated $595,638 to the state’s lawmakers.

Still think Trump is a shrewd businessman? Business Insider compared Trump to other billionaire businessmen on the Forbes list, and Trump hasn’t done all that well compared to them. Of the 56 billionaires whose net worth has increased, Trump came in at position 42, with a net increase of 300%. To give you an idea, the top billionaire on the list increased his net worth by 14658%, and I’m sure none of us would want Larry Ellison (Oracle) to be president! Number two is George Soros at 8245%, then Bill Gates at 7027%, Phil Knight (Nike) at 6175%, Charles Butt (HEB Grocery stores) at 3977%, and both Koch Brothers at 3855% each. Compared to them, Trump is an amateur with a big mouth.

How can Trump lie so much (and exaggerate so much) and get away with it? Why does anyone believe anything Trump says? An answer might be found in the beliefs of the people who support him. According to a new national poll:

66% of Trump’s supporters believe that Obama is a Muslim to just 12% that grant he’s a Christian. 61% think Obama was not born in the United States to only 21% who accept that he was. And 63% want to amend the Constitution to eliminate birthright citizenship, to only 20% who want to keep things the way they are.

When Trump questions Obama’s religion or his birth place, or calls illegal immigrants “rapists” and “criminals”, he is appealing to the racist elements in our society. As the poll concludes:

Donald Trump’s saying things out on the campaign trail that a lot of people think, but that have generally been seen as not appropriate to talk about in public. So it’s not surprising that people who hold those kinds of beliefs are gravitating towards him.

And if these people believe in Trump, they will believe anything he says, even if it is an outright lie.

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Low Information Voters

I understand that most people pay little attention to politics. If they vote, those people are called “low information voters”. But there are other people that aren’t exactly “low information”, they are more like “wrong information”. They think they know things, but those things are just plain wrong.

A prime example of this is a recent national poll from Public Policy Polling. They asked Republicans if they think that Barack Obama was born in the US. Only 29% said yes, while 44% said no, and 26% were not sure. They also asked Republicans if they think Ted Cruz was born in the US, and 40% said yes, while 22% said no, and 39% weren’t sure. The only problem is that Ted Cruz freely and publicly admits that he was born in Calgary, Canada. Showing this graphically:

obama cruz US birth

I know where these people get the idea that Obama was not born in the US, even though there has never been any actual evidence to the contrary. So it is annoying, but not totally surprising that Obama has been president for almost 7 years but less than a third of Republican voters believe he was born in the US. But how can these people believe that Cruz was born in the US?

Likewise, 54% of Republicans believe that Obama is not a Christian, while 32% aren’t sure, which means that a whopping 86% of Republicans are skeptical of the president’s actual faith.

In the interest of being fair and balanced, another poll shows that partisan influence is not confined entirely to Republicans.

The 2013 poll asked people their opinion about repealing the 1975 Public Affairs Act. The trick is that there is no 1975 Public Affairs Act, it was completely made up. But the question was phrased three ways.

When phrased as “Some people say the 1975 Public Affairs Act should be repealed. Do you agree or disagree?”, the results were as follows:

Some People Say

Fewer Democrats agree with the statement than Independents or Republicans, but the results are not statistically significant.

But now look at the alternative phrasings, which injected partisan information. Some people were asked “President Obama says the 1975 Public Affairs Act should be repealed. Do you agree or disagree?” and others were asked “The Republicans in Congress say the 1975 Public Affairs Act should be repealed. Do you agree or disagree?”. The opinions were dramatically different:

2013-04-11-ObamaGOPSay

When Obama said it, 39% of Republicans disagreed with him, while only 13% of Democrats agreed. But when Republicans in Congress said it, then 28% of Democrats disagreed, while 20% of Republicans agreed. This shows that Republicans are more easily swayed by partisan arguments: 39% swayed against something if Obama says it, while 20% swayed for it if Republicans in Congress say it. Democrats were still affected by partisanship, with 28% swayed to be against something if the Republicans in Congress say it, and 13% swayed to be for something if Obama says it.

But the interesting conclusion is that a significant number of voters of both parties are willing to express an opinion about an issue they know nothing about (indeed, could not know anything about because it was made up for the poll).

But what about real issues? A new poll tries to answer that question.

In the new poll, respondents were asked about universal health care, Social Security, the Iran nuclear deal, and affirmative action. Half the respondents were told that Donald Trump supported these issues. The other half was told that either Obama, John Kerry, or Hillary Clinton supported the same issues.

For example, universal health care:

Health Care

It is true that both Obama and Trump have publicly praised universal health care. But the survey response depended heavily on whether the question attributed Obama or Trump as praising it. Unsurprisingly, if Trump praised it Democrats were less likely to support it, while Republicans were more likely.

The results were similar for Affirmative Action:

Affirmative Action

For Social Security, there was less partisan influence, showing that there is strong support for protecting Social Security among both Democrats and Republicans, although both were somewhat influenced by whether it was Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump who said it.

Finally, the results for the Iran Nuclear Deal was interesting:

Iran Deal

Democratic support for the Iran deal went up slightly (from 52% to 54%) when told that Trump opposes ripping it up. Maybe a few Democratic voters were convinced if even Trump doesn’t want to rip it up. But Republican support went from 20% when told Kerry opposes ripping up the deal to a slight majority of 53% when told that Trump opposes ripping up the deal.

I suppose the Iran Nuclear Deal is more influenced by partisan support because there are few voters who would know enough about the details of the deal to actually have an opinion whether it is a good deal to sign or not. So people have to depend on who supports it and whether they like that person.

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